By big five

The Ocampo ruling indicting four Kenyans as bearing the greatest responsibility for 2007/8 post-polls violence has yet again stirred the murky waters in the political pool which as a nation we revel either swimming in or standing by the sides cheering on the swimmers.

There will be bitter exchanges of words, chest thumping and dress down pitting members of PNU against those of ODM, the two antagonistic parties forming the ruling coalition. And the theatre is the familiar places: press conferences, funerals, churches, rallies and the press.

But while we the lesser mortals will keep entertained and meanwhile get some escape from our dull and drudge existence of penury, and keep cheering on the players in the dirty game, the collateral damages in forms of ignition of primordial ethnic sensitivities, and our palms getting bruised due to clapping, there is need to be alive to the fact that yet newer political re alignments will emerge.

There are three possible scenarios that might emerge from this judgment and particularly with regard to the presidential polls later in the year or early next year.

To begin with, Raila Odinga,the prime minister of the republic of Kenya and the man to beat going by the latest opinion polls might be the beneficially of  Ocampo’s judgment or the direct victim.

He can be the beneficiary if Kenyans and especially the bulk of supporters of Hon Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto decide to cast their votes with a candidate they might be certain of rather than gambling with their darlings who now face an uncertain future as they battle out the serious accusations by The Hague based court. They might vote with fury, having evaluated the candidacies of the others and perhaps decide to give ‘the devil’ partly to mellow his heart and to show you don’t return ‘evil for evil’ as majority are wont to believe that Raila Odinga is the architect of their woes mainly to smoothen his way to state house. In politics, this can happen as history has shown. Who would have thought that in 2002, the opposition including Raila Odinga could settle for the unpopular Mwai Kibaki?

The second scenario could be the straw that broke the camel’s back, literally for Raila Odinga.The Ocampo two,Ruto and Uhuru might use the opportunity to rally their communities against Raila  by  advising their communities to vote a certain candidate but not Raila.This siege mentality could work magic as Raila is swept by an avalanche of votes from atop Mt Kenya to all the way to Mogotio.The two communities,Kalenjine and Kikuyu have numbers that could prove a tall order to rally an equal votes from across the country. For Raila, this scenario could be his greatest danger. The beneficiary of this ruling could end up most likely favouring the unlikely candidate probably Saitoti, Wamalwa or Kalonzo.These candidates could humiliate the premier in the polls if the communities aggrieved by the ruling decide to stick with their fallen heroes.

The third scenario could be that the indicted candidates run in the first round but there emerges no outright winner precipating a run-off. In the run off, the oppositionists decide to back the number two who could be Uhuru Kenyatta,Ruto,Kalonzo or Saitoti.In the run off, the number two could beat the prime minister hands down. This last assertion may appear outrageous but facts vindicate this assertion.

First, the communities that are aggrieved by the verdict are not only two, but they include the outliers, small tribes closer to the communities from which the accused come, and also the communities that might be dragged to the siege mentality. These include Somali (who might be told by v and his ilk that Odinga wanted to roast their man, Ali), Akamba, some coastal where KANU and URP has made some in roads.

Furthermore, Raila’s image and credibility as a change leader that he has projected prior to the 2007 polls is now significantly dented by his lackluster performance in government, his fall out with his advisor,Miguna Miguna who has revealed the ‘other side’ of Raila,coupled with his perceived bias against some ethnic groups. His coteries of sycophants who are perceived to be arrogant and lacking in tact help to project the image of a leader of certain tribes and not a potentially all inclusive leader.

Having built more political enemies across the country, the man many saw as a putative peoples’ president’s ride to state house may be quite bumpy. History has shown that whenever communities are under perceived or real siege as in war, any leader who emerges and rallies the community against the enemy will always win.Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto can easily rally not only their communities but several others against Raila Odinga, and when many recall the unfulfilled promises, injustice and dictatorship in the party’s upper echelons, ditching anything ODM can be quite easy.